Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019

Fecha de publicación: 01/02/2022

Autores Icesi

Sergio Ivan Prada Rios

Autor

Participantes ajenos a Icesi

Nichols, E
Steinmetz, JD
Vollset, SE
Fukutaki, K
Chalek, J
Abd-Allah, F
Abdoli, A
Abualhasan, A
Abu-Gharbieh, E
Akram, TT
Al Hamad, H
Alahdab, F
Alanezi, FM
Alipour, V
Almustanyir, S
Amu, H
Ansari, I
Arabloo, J
Ashraf, T
Astell-Burt, T
Ayano, G
Ayuso-Mateos, JL
Baig, AA
Barnett, A
Barrow, A
Baune, BT
Bejot, Y
Bezabhe, WMM
Bezabih, YM
Bhagavathula, AS
Bhaskar, S
Bhattacharyya, K
Bijani, A
Biswas, A
Bolla, SR
Boloor, A
Brayne, C
Brenner, H
Burkart, K
Burns, RA
Camera, LA
Cao, C
Carvalho, F
Castro-de-Araujo, LFS
Catala-Lopez, F
Cerin, E
Chavan, PP
Cherbuin, N
Chu, DT
Costa, VM
Couto, RAS
Dadras, O
Dai, XC
Dandona, L
Dandona, R
De La Cruz-Gongora, V
Dhamnetiya, D
da Silva, DD
Diaz, D
Douiri, A
Edvardsson, D
Ekholuenetale, M
El Sayed, I
El-Jaafary, SI
Eskandari, K
Eskandarieh, S
Esmaeilnejad, S
Fares, J
Faro, A
Farooque, U
Feigin, VL
Feng, XQ
Fereshtehnejad, SM
Fernandes, E
Ferrara, P
Filip, I
Fillit, H
Fischer, F
Gaidhane, S
Galluzzo, L
Ghashghaee, A
Ghith, N
Gialluisi, A
Gilani, SA
Glavan, IR
Gnedovskaya, EV
Golechha, M
Gupta, R
Gupta, VB
Gupta, VK
Haider, MR
Hall, BJ
Hamidi, S
Hanif, A
Hankey, GJ
Haque, S
Hartono, RK
Hasaballah, AI
Hasan, MT
Hassan, A
Hay, SI
Hayat, K
Hegazy, MI
Heidari, G
Heidari-Soureshjani, R
Herteliu, C
Househ, M
Hussain, R
Hwang, BF
Iacoviello, L
Iavicoli, I
Ilesanmi, OS
Ilic, IM
Ilic, MD
Irvani, SSN
Iso, H
Iwagami, M
Jabbarinejad, R
Jacob, L
Jain, V
Jayapal, SK
Jayawardena, R
Jha, RP
Jonas, JB
Joseph, N
Kalani, R
Kandel, A
Kandel, H
Karch, A
Kasa, AS
Kassie, GM
Keshavarz, P
Khan, MAB
Khatib, MN
Khoja, TAM
Khubchandani, J
Kim, MS
Kim, YJ
Kisa, A
Kisa, S
Kivimaki, M
Koroshetz, WJ
Koyanagi, A
Kumar, GA
Kumar, M
Lak, HM
Leonardi, M
Li, BY
Lim, SS
Liu, XF
Liu, YW
Logroscino, G
Lorkowski, S
Lucchetti, G
Saute, RL
Magnani, FG
Malik, AA
Massano, J
Mehndiratta, MM
Menezes, RG
Meretoja, A
Mohajer, B
Ibrahim, NM
Mohammad, Y
Mohammed, A
Mokdad, AH
Mondello, S
Moni, MA
Moniruzzaman, M
Mossie, TB
Nagel, G
Naveed, M
Nayak, VC
Kandel, SN
Nguyen, TH
Oancea, B
Otstavnov, N
Otstavnov, SS
Owolabi, MO
Panda-Jonas, S
Kan, FP
Pasovic, M
Patel, UK
Pathak, M
Peres, MFP
Perianayagam, A
Peterson, CB
Phillips, MR
Pinheiro, M
Piradov, MA
Pond, CD
Potashman, MH
Pottoo, FH
Radfar, A
Raggi, A
Rahim, F
Rahman, M
Ram, P
Ranasinghe, P
Rawaf, DL
Rawaf, S
Rezaei, N
Rezapour, A
Robinson, SR
Romoli, M
Roshandel, G
Sahathevan, R
Sahebkar, A
Sahraian, MA
Sathian, B
Sattin, D
Sawhney, M
Saylan, M
Schiavolin, S
Seylani, A
Sha, F
Shaikh, MA
Shaji, KS
Shannawaz, M
Shetty, JK
Shigematsu, M
Shin, JI
Shiri, R
Silva, DAS
Silva, JP
Silva, R
Singh, JA
Skryabin, VY
Skryabina, AA
Smith, AE
Soshnikov, S
Spurlock, EE
Stein, DJ
Sun, J
Tabares-Seisdedos, R
Thakur, B
Timalsina, B
Tovani-Palone, MR
Tran, BX
Tsegaye, GW
Tahbaz, SV
Valdez, PR
Venketasubramanian, N
Vlassov, V
Vu, GT
Vu, LG
Wang, YP
Wimo, A
Winkler, AS
Yadav, L
Jabbari, SHY
Yamagishi, K
Yang, L
Yano, Y
Yonemoto, N
Yu, CH
Yunusa, I
Zadey, S
Zastrozhin, MS
Zastrozhina, A
Zhang, ZJ
Murray, CJL
Vos, T
GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Coll

Resumen

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57middot4 (95% uncertainty interval 50middot4-65middot1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152middot8 (130middot8-175middot9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0middot1% [-7middot5 to 10middot8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot69 [1middot64-1middot73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot67 [1middot52-1middot85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Datos de la publicación

ISSN/ISSNe:: 2468-2667,
Tipo:: Article
Páginas:: 105-125
DOI:: 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
PubMed:: 34998485
Enlace a otro recurso:: www.scopus.com
Factor de Impacto:: 10.591 SCImago ℠
Cuartil:: Q1 SCImago ℠

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Métricas

Filiaciones

Keywords

adult; Africa south of the Sahara; aged; aging; Alzheimer disease; Article; body mass; dementia; disease severity; educational status; female; global disease burden; glucose blood level; health care planning; health care policy; human; low income country; major clinical study; male; middle aged; Middle East; middle income country; North Africa; population growth; risk factor; smoking; very elderly; Western Europe; dementia; global disease burden; global health; population dynamics; smoking; Blood Glucose; Body Mass Index; Dementia; Educational Status; Global Burden of Disease; Global Health; Humans; Population Dynamics; Risk Factors; Smoking; Sociodemographic Factors

Campos de Estudio

Financiación

Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit

Bill AMP

Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health

Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior, Brasil

Fogarty International Center

Gates Ventures

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research)

Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C. Besta, Linea - Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche)

Medical Research Council

Melinda Gates Foundation

MRC

National Health and Medical Research Council

NIHR Applied Research Collaboration

NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London

Portuguese national funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia

Research Management Centre, Xiamen University, Malaysia

Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation

University of Porto

Wellcome Trust

Cita

Cita Bibliográfica

Nichols E,Steinmetz JD,Vollset SE,Fukutaki K,Chalek J,Abd F,Abdoli A,Abualhasan A,Abu E,Akram TT,Al Hamad H,Alahdab F,Alanezi FM,Alipour V,Almustanyir S,Amu H,Ansari I,Arabloo J,Ashraf T,Astell T,Ayano G,Ayuso JL,Baig AA,Barnett A,Barrow A,Baune BT,Bejot Y,Bezabhe WMM,Bezabih YM,Bhagavathula AS,Bhaskar S,Bhattacharyya K,Bijani A,Biswas A,Bolla SR,Boloor A,Brayne C,Brenner H,Burkart K,Burns RA,Camera LA,Cao C,Carvalho F,Castro LFS,Catala F,Cerin E,Chavan PP,Cherbuin N,Chu DT,Costa VM,Couto R,Dadras O,Dai XC,Dandona L,Dandona R,De La Cruz V,Dhamnetiya D,da DD,Diaz D,Douiri A,Edvardsson D,Ekholuenetale M,El Sayed I,El SI,Eskandari K,Eskandarieh S,Esmaeilnejad S,Fares J,Faro A,Farooque U,Feigin VL,Feng XQ,Fereshtehnejad SM,Fernandes E,Ferrara P,Filip I,Fillit H,Fischer F,Gaidhane S,Galluzzo L,Ghashghaee A,Ghith N,Gialluisi A,Gilani SA,Glavan IR,Gnedovskaya EV,Golechha M,Gupta R,Gupta VB,Gupta VK,Haider MR,Hall BJ,Hamidi S,Hanif A,Hankey GJ,Haque S,Hartono RK,Hasaballah AI,Hasan MT,Hassan A,Hay SI,Hayat K,Hegazy MI,Heidari G,Heidari R,Herteliu C,Househ M,Hussain R,Hwang BF,Iacoviello L,Iavicoli I,Ilesanmi OS,Ilic IM,Ilic MD,Irvani SSN,Iso H,Iwagami M,Jabbarinejad R,Jacob L,Jain V,Jayapal SK,Jayawardena R,Jha RP,Jonas JB,Joseph N,Kalani R,Kandel A,Kandel H,Karch A,Kasa AS,Kassie GM,Keshavarz P,Khan M,Khatib MN,Khoja T,Khubchandani J,Kim MS,Kim YJ,Kisa A,Kisa S,Kivimaki M,Koroshetz WJ,Koyanagi A,Kumar GA,Kumar M,Lak HM,Leonardi M,Li BY,Lim SS,Liu XF,Liu YW,Logroscino G,Lorkowski S,Lucchetti G,Saute RL,Magnani FG,Malik AA,Massano J,Mehndiratta MM,Menezes RG,Meretoja A,Mohajer B,Ibrahim NM,Mohammad Y,Mohammed A,Mokdad AH,Mondello S,Moni MA,Moniruzzaman M,Mossie TB,Nagel G,Naveed M,Nayak VC,Kandel SN,Nguyen TH,Oancea B,Otstavnov N,Otstavnov SS,Owolabi MO,Panda S,Kan FP,Pasovic M,Patel UK,Pathak M,Peres MFP,Perianayagam A,Peterson CB,Phillips MR,Pinheiro M,Piradov MA,Pond CD,Potashman MH,Pottoo FH,Prada SI,Radfar A,Raggi A,Rahim F,Rahman M,Ram P,Ranasinghe P,Rawaf DL,Rawaf S,Rezaei N,Rezapour A,Robinson SR,Romoli M,Roshandel G,Sahathevan R,Sahebkar A,Sahraian MA,Sathian B,Sattin D,Sawhney M,Saylan M,Schiavolin S,Seylani A,Sha F,Shaikh MA,Shaji KS,Shannawaz M,Shetty JK,Shigematsu M,Shin JI,Shiri R,Silva D,Silva JP,Silva R,Singh JA,Skryabin VY,Skryabina AA,Smith AE,Soshnikov S,Spurlock EE,Stein DJ,Sun J,Tabares R,Thakur B,Timalsina B,Tovani MR,Tran BX,Tsegaye GW,Tahbaz SV,Valdez PR,Venketasubramanian N,Vlassov V,Vu GT,Vu LG,Wang YP,Wimo A,Winkler AS,Yadav L,Jabbari SHY,Yamagishi K,Yang L,Yano Y,Yonemoto N,Yu CH,Yunusa I,Zadey S,Zastrozhin MS,Zastrozhina A,Zhang ZJ,Murray CJL,Vos T,Dementia Forecasting Coll GBD2019. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Lancet Public Health. 2022. 7. (2):p. 105-125. IF:21,648. (1).